Betting Nfl
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*Nfl Football Point Spreads Vegas
*Public Betting Nfl
*Betting Nfl Lines
*Las Vegas Betting Nfl
The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sport among North American bettors, and there are plenty of trends available for the benefit of pro football handicapper. In fact, the sharpest NFL bettors use the massive popularity of the league to isolate winners! Betting on the NFL remains by far the leading single driver of sportsbook business. It’s no surprise that America’s hunger for the latest and best NFL point spreads continues to grow, along with football injury updates and matchup data to help them win more bets, and ultimately more money.Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.Point Spread Bets
I admit ’point spread bet’ is not a common term in sports betting, but I’m trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a ’straight bet’ but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.Point Spread Bets in the NFLBetWinsLossesPushesWin RateStd. Dev.N.S.D.ReturnAll home1,4841,6805646.90%1.26%-2.46-10.28%All away1,6801,4845653.10%1.26%2.461.34%All favorite1,4881,6175647.92%1.27%-1.64-8.36%All underdog1,6171,4885652.08%1.27%1.64-0.57%Home underdog4925202048.62%2.22%-0.62-7.05%Home favorite9681,1253646.25%1.55%-2.43-11.51%Away underdog1,1259683653.75%1.55%2.432.57%Away favorite5204922051.38%2.22%0.62-1.87%Home pick2435040.68%9.21%-1.01-22.34%Away pick3524059.32%9.21%1.0113.25%All3,1643,16411250.00%0.89%0.00-4.47%
Explanation of column headings:
*Bet: Type of bet
*Wins: Number of wins against point spread
*Losses: Number of losses against point spread
*Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
*Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
*Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
*N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
*Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I’ve been wrong before.Under and Over Bets in the NFLBetWinsLossesPushesWin RateStd. Dev.N.S.D.ReturnOver1,5861,5765850.16%1.26%0.13-4.17%Under1,5761,5865849.84%1.26%-0.13-4.76%Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.Money Line Bets in the NFL
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Aarp classic solitaire game. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFLSpreadGamesWinsActual
ProbabilityEstimated
ProbabilityFair
Line11396949.6%46.4%1151.5884348.9%44.6%12421265140.5%42.9%1332.52249843.8%41.1%143351723545.5%39.4%1543.527910738.4%37.7%16541575937.6%36.1%1774.51284736.7%34.4%1915892325.8%32.8%2055.51183832.2%31.3%22061334533.8%29.7%2366.51474228.6%28.3%25472205123.2%26.8%2737.51463624.7%25.5%2938651421.5%24.1%3158.5521630.8%22.8%3389581322.4%21.6%3639.548612.5%20.4%390101041918.3%19.3%41910.5611524.6%18.2%450114149.8%17.1%48311.522418.2%16.1%5191213323.1%15.2%55812.525416.0%14.3%5991334617.6%13.4%64413.536411.1%12.6%692143638.3%11.9%74314.51218.3%11.1%798
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
*If you bet off the board, either do a pick-3 or mix in one leg that isn’t at the standard -110 odds, to get off the lousy parlay odds table, and force a fair calculation.
*On parlay cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the ’off the board’ point spread.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
*If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry’s Nugget.
*Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
*Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
*If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
*On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the ’off the board’ point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.Margin of Victory in the NFLMOVProbability00.2%13.7%23.8%314.5%45.2%53.4%66.2%79.2%83.6%91.7%105.6%112.5%121.5%132.9%144.8%151.5%162.1%173.1%182.3%191.1%202.4%213.2%22+15.7%Total100.0%
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Promo code fanduel sportsbook odds. Anything else and it is a bad value.Buying a Half Point Off the SpreadBuying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By ’capture’ I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFLTotal
PointsNum. in
SampleProbabilityFair
Price30890.0276406.5831480.0149073.5032420.0130433.06331020.0316777.5834830.0257766.1335520.0161493.8036740.0229815.45371200.0372678.9838630.0195654.6239620.0192554.54401050.0326097.81411210.0375789.0542480.0149073.50431260.0391309.45441230.0381999.2145820.0254666.0546640.0198764.69471130.0350938.4348980.0304357.2749610.0189444.4750810.0251555.98511190.0369578.9052740.0229815.4553510.0158393.7254660.0204974.8455850.0263986.2856250.0077641.8157630.0195654.6258580.0180124.2459400.0124222.9160180.0055901.30
Key to column headings:
*Total Points = Total point scored in game
*Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
*Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.Internal Links
*Alternate point spread calculator.
*Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
*Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
*NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
*Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular forms of NFL gambling, along with moneyline betting and spread betting. Despite being quite difficult to do well, the concept is quite simple: Over/under betting strategy means picking how many total points will be scored in a game. The number provided as a line is the combination of both teams, and you simply pick: Over? Or under?
Naturally, in practice, the strategy gets a little more complicated, so I’ll explain over the course of this page.
Before I go into detail, though, I want to remind you that over/under bets are one of the most in-depth situations that you will find in NFL gambling. More than most other types, over/under wagers require that you have a complete and comprehensive vision for how you think an NFL game will play out.
We also list our top recommended NFL betting sites here, for your convenience.RankDE Gambling SiteSign Up BonusGet Started#1Betway Sports100% up to €150#222bet Sports100% up to €122#3Spin Sports100% up to €200#410Bet Sports100% up to €50#5Guts Sports100% up to €50
This page does not concern researching and determining what the outcome of a game will be: For more information on that, check out my general introduction page, which describes my three-stage NFL Betting Strategy. In short, to make over/under bets, I utilize a three-stage process: gathering information, utilizing checks & balances and visualizing the game.
Here, I’ll go beyond this general NFL betting strategy and provide the following details specific to over/under betting:
*How total score over/under bets work and how to interpret the line
*How to know when to place a wager on a total score over/under bet
*How to find good value and make money in the long run with O/U bets
Let’s get started by talking about what an over/under bet is, and how the line works.How Does a Total Score Over/Under Bet Work?
In my experience, over/under betting is one of the most common and enjoyable ways to gamble on the outcome of an NFL game. Across the nation and across the world, people tune in to NFL games – especially during the fourth quarter – to see whether their over/under bet will pay out.
A total score over/under bet is simply a wager placed on how high the combined score will be between the two teams. To explain, let’s take a look at some specific examples:
These examples come from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: There were 8 games on national TV the weekend of January 7-8, and the gambling public was out in full force to stake their claim on one team or another to win, to cover the spread, or to push the total score one way or another.
These were the available total score over/under bets:
*New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
*Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
*Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
*Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
When I put up these sample over/under bets, a couple things become immediately apparent. First off, we notice that different from moneyline bets and spread bets, an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. You can bet the over, or the under, but you can’t bet on one team or the other.
The other thing that you’ll notice is that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This reflects the golden rule of sports gambling: The goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Changing the odds to make wagers more or less profitable to gamblers is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.Nfl Football Point Spreads Vegas
The four games listed above also demonstrate the usual range of over/under odds. In contrast with moneyline odds (which vary widely) and ATS odds (which will often go up to +/- 150), over/under odds do not vary much. Having 75% or more of the games show -110 on both sides is a pretty standard proportion.
And in these examples, the total score lines themselves (which a gambler may go over or under) are also very standard. If the distribution of total score over/under lines was a normal curve, then it’s likely the bulge of the bell would fall around the range of 42 to 47 – this is the range of lines that you will most often see for most NFL games.
Let’s think about what this means in practice. If a game has a total score of 42 points, this means that – on average – both teams contributed 21 points to the total score. This means the equivalent of three touchdowns per team, or six touchdowns total over the course of the game.
For a 60-minute game, this in turn means a touchdown for every 10 minutes of game time: Touchdown #1 on a team’s opening drive. Touchdown #2 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Touchdown #3 with 4 minutes left in the half. Touchdown #4 midway through the third quarter. Touchdown #5 with 10 minutes left in the game. And Touchdown #6 on the game’s final drive, within the two-minute warning.
Now, do all NFL games play out this way? Of course not. Not by a long shot. But the reason I give this simplified example is just to make the total score a little more tangible. Thinking about a 42-point total score over/under is a little hard to grasp at first. But when you break it down in the context of a real game, it becomes much more clear how to diagnose what a line means and what type of a game would provoke such a scoring pattern.
With this basic idea of how over/under bets work, let’s now look at when you should place an over/under bet, which is tantamount to knowing whether the odds offer good value.When Should You Place an Over/Under Bet?
For some reason, NFL gamblers that are particularly keen on using hard statistics to decide when to place a wager seem to gravitate towards over/under betting. So to provide some hard statistics to this conversation, I would simply offer the numbers that I’ve assembled in my 15+ years of NFL gambling.
While it’s not profitable to look back too far into the past (as the NFL has changed dramatically over its history, and the introduction and widespread adoption of the West Coast offense has recently changed the landscape of scoring in the league), limiting our target range to the last 15 years of regular season and playoff football gives us plenty of data to play with – over 7500 games-worth, to be exact.
Over this span of time, the limits for total score lines have become fixed at 30 (for the lowest) and 60 (for the highest). Of course, just because odds-makers don’t post lines lower than 30 or higher than 60 doesn’t mean that games don’t end below or above these bookends. According to my data, roughly 1 in 7 games end up with a total score below 30, and roughly 1 in 8 games end up with a total score above 60.
It’s extremely important to keep in mind, however, that there is no magic statistical formula that will tell you whether or not a game will go over or under. There are a host of systems out there – like betting the under in divisional games and the over in non-conference games, betting the over if the game gets to 41 or 42 or 44 total points, betting the over in games played in below-freezing temperatures, and any number of others.
But once again, statistical systems must be taken with a grain of salt. During these same 15 years, during which so much statistical knowledge has become available about when to bet the over and when to bet the under, the actual record has remained almost exactly 50–50. As in all types of betting, the house will end up making sure that the odds even out.
This is why prudent over/under bets require an understanding of value. Value betting is generally defined as wagering only in situations when you feel very confident about what the outcome of a wager will be (i.e. you feel there is low risk) while at the same time you feel that the odds for a particular wager hold the potential for a nice payoff (i.e. you feel there is high reward).
The betting systems mentioned above are after precisely this type of value, albeit in a slightly misguided way. When a betting system points out some statistical anomaly about how often a particular set of situations has prompted a winning over or an under, it’s useful to note the conditions they reference, but this doesn’t mean you should take what they’re saying as law. Consistently finding value requires combining together a large number of different betting systems with a large number of situational factors.
Now at this point, you might be asking: But what are these factors? How do I know if I’m getting good value? The short and honest response is that I can’t possibly explain this to you in words, especially not in the course of one short page. Like I said above, there is no specific magic formula for you to follow, and if someone tells you that there is, they’re probably going to ask for your credit card information next. It takes skill, experience, and a certain amount of feel to find value, and this takes time to develop.
Having said this, I don’t want you to think that there’s nothing you can do to start making good value decisions, and learning for yourself how to make this a profitable part of your gambling repertoire. In the next section, I’ll dive into the specifics of finding good value for total score over/under bets.How Do You Make Money with Over/Under Betting?
As I just stated, and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, NFL gambling is a skill, and it takes practice. Like any other skill, it takes time and effort to develop the intuition that makes you proficient and profitable. I’ve been employed for 15+ years as an NFL gambler, and one of the ways
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*Nfl Football Point Spreads Vegas
*Public Betting Nfl
*Betting Nfl Lines
*Las Vegas Betting Nfl
The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sport among North American bettors, and there are plenty of trends available for the benefit of pro football handicapper. In fact, the sharpest NFL bettors use the massive popularity of the league to isolate winners! Betting on the NFL remains by far the leading single driver of sportsbook business. It’s no surprise that America’s hunger for the latest and best NFL point spreads continues to grow, along with football injury updates and matchup data to help them win more bets, and ultimately more money.Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.Point Spread Bets
I admit ’point spread bet’ is not a common term in sports betting, but I’m trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a ’straight bet’ but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.Point Spread Bets in the NFLBetWinsLossesPushesWin RateStd. Dev.N.S.D.ReturnAll home1,4841,6805646.90%1.26%-2.46-10.28%All away1,6801,4845653.10%1.26%2.461.34%All favorite1,4881,6175647.92%1.27%-1.64-8.36%All underdog1,6171,4885652.08%1.27%1.64-0.57%Home underdog4925202048.62%2.22%-0.62-7.05%Home favorite9681,1253646.25%1.55%-2.43-11.51%Away underdog1,1259683653.75%1.55%2.432.57%Away favorite5204922051.38%2.22%0.62-1.87%Home pick2435040.68%9.21%-1.01-22.34%Away pick3524059.32%9.21%1.0113.25%All3,1643,16411250.00%0.89%0.00-4.47%
Explanation of column headings:
*Bet: Type of bet
*Wins: Number of wins against point spread
*Losses: Number of losses against point spread
*Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
*Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
*Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
*N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
*Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I’ve been wrong before.Under and Over Bets in the NFLBetWinsLossesPushesWin RateStd. Dev.N.S.D.ReturnOver1,5861,5765850.16%1.26%0.13-4.17%Under1,5761,5865849.84%1.26%-0.13-4.76%Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.Money Line Bets in the NFL
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Aarp classic solitaire game. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFLSpreadGamesWinsActual
ProbabilityEstimated
ProbabilityFair
Line11396949.6%46.4%1151.5884348.9%44.6%12421265140.5%42.9%1332.52249843.8%41.1%143351723545.5%39.4%1543.527910738.4%37.7%16541575937.6%36.1%1774.51284736.7%34.4%1915892325.8%32.8%2055.51183832.2%31.3%22061334533.8%29.7%2366.51474228.6%28.3%25472205123.2%26.8%2737.51463624.7%25.5%2938651421.5%24.1%3158.5521630.8%22.8%3389581322.4%21.6%3639.548612.5%20.4%390101041918.3%19.3%41910.5611524.6%18.2%450114149.8%17.1%48311.522418.2%16.1%5191213323.1%15.2%55812.525416.0%14.3%5991334617.6%13.4%64413.536411.1%12.6%692143638.3%11.9%74314.51218.3%11.1%798
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
*If you bet off the board, either do a pick-3 or mix in one leg that isn’t at the standard -110 odds, to get off the lousy parlay odds table, and force a fair calculation.
*On parlay cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the ’off the board’ point spread.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
*If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry’s Nugget.
*Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
*Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
*If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
*On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the ’off the board’ point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.Margin of Victory in the NFLMOVProbability00.2%13.7%23.8%314.5%45.2%53.4%66.2%79.2%83.6%91.7%105.6%112.5%121.5%132.9%144.8%151.5%162.1%173.1%182.3%191.1%202.4%213.2%22+15.7%Total100.0%
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Promo code fanduel sportsbook odds. Anything else and it is a bad value.Buying a Half Point Off the SpreadBuying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By ’capture’ I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFLTotal
PointsNum. in
SampleProbabilityFair
Price30890.0276406.5831480.0149073.5032420.0130433.06331020.0316777.5834830.0257766.1335520.0161493.8036740.0229815.45371200.0372678.9838630.0195654.6239620.0192554.54401050.0326097.81411210.0375789.0542480.0149073.50431260.0391309.45441230.0381999.2145820.0254666.0546640.0198764.69471130.0350938.4348980.0304357.2749610.0189444.4750810.0251555.98511190.0369578.9052740.0229815.4553510.0158393.7254660.0204974.8455850.0263986.2856250.0077641.8157630.0195654.6258580.0180124.2459400.0124222.9160180.0055901.30
Key to column headings:
*Total Points = Total point scored in game
*Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
*Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.Internal Links
*Alternate point spread calculator.
*Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
*Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
*NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
*Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular forms of NFL gambling, along with moneyline betting and spread betting. Despite being quite difficult to do well, the concept is quite simple: Over/under betting strategy means picking how many total points will be scored in a game. The number provided as a line is the combination of both teams, and you simply pick: Over? Or under?
Naturally, in practice, the strategy gets a little more complicated, so I’ll explain over the course of this page.
Before I go into detail, though, I want to remind you that over/under bets are one of the most in-depth situations that you will find in NFL gambling. More than most other types, over/under wagers require that you have a complete and comprehensive vision for how you think an NFL game will play out.
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This page does not concern researching and determining what the outcome of a game will be: For more information on that, check out my general introduction page, which describes my three-stage NFL Betting Strategy. In short, to make over/under bets, I utilize a three-stage process: gathering information, utilizing checks & balances and visualizing the game.
Here, I’ll go beyond this general NFL betting strategy and provide the following details specific to over/under betting:
*How total score over/under bets work and how to interpret the line
*How to know when to place a wager on a total score over/under bet
*How to find good value and make money in the long run with O/U bets
Let’s get started by talking about what an over/under bet is, and how the line works.How Does a Total Score Over/Under Bet Work?
In my experience, over/under betting is one of the most common and enjoyable ways to gamble on the outcome of an NFL game. Across the nation and across the world, people tune in to NFL games – especially during the fourth quarter – to see whether their over/under bet will pay out.
A total score over/under bet is simply a wager placed on how high the combined score will be between the two teams. To explain, let’s take a look at some specific examples:
These examples come from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: There were 8 games on national TV the weekend of January 7-8, and the gambling public was out in full force to stake their claim on one team or another to win, to cover the spread, or to push the total score one way or another.
These were the available total score over/under bets:
*New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
*Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
*Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
*Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
When I put up these sample over/under bets, a couple things become immediately apparent. First off, we notice that different from moneyline bets and spread bets, an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. You can bet the over, or the under, but you can’t bet on one team or the other.
The other thing that you’ll notice is that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This reflects the golden rule of sports gambling: The goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Changing the odds to make wagers more or less profitable to gamblers is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.Nfl Football Point Spreads Vegas
The four games listed above also demonstrate the usual range of over/under odds. In contrast with moneyline odds (which vary widely) and ATS odds (which will often go up to +/- 150), over/under odds do not vary much. Having 75% or more of the games show -110 on both sides is a pretty standard proportion.
And in these examples, the total score lines themselves (which a gambler may go over or under) are also very standard. If the distribution of total score over/under lines was a normal curve, then it’s likely the bulge of the bell would fall around the range of 42 to 47 – this is the range of lines that you will most often see for most NFL games.
Let’s think about what this means in practice. If a game has a total score of 42 points, this means that – on average – both teams contributed 21 points to the total score. This means the equivalent of three touchdowns per team, or six touchdowns total over the course of the game.
For a 60-minute game, this in turn means a touchdown for every 10 minutes of game time: Touchdown #1 on a team’s opening drive. Touchdown #2 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Touchdown #3 with 4 minutes left in the half. Touchdown #4 midway through the third quarter. Touchdown #5 with 10 minutes left in the game. And Touchdown #6 on the game’s final drive, within the two-minute warning.
Now, do all NFL games play out this way? Of course not. Not by a long shot. But the reason I give this simplified example is just to make the total score a little more tangible. Thinking about a 42-point total score over/under is a little hard to grasp at first. But when you break it down in the context of a real game, it becomes much more clear how to diagnose what a line means and what type of a game would provoke such a scoring pattern.
With this basic idea of how over/under bets work, let’s now look at when you should place an over/under bet, which is tantamount to knowing whether the odds offer good value.When Should You Place an Over/Under Bet?
For some reason, NFL gamblers that are particularly keen on using hard statistics to decide when to place a wager seem to gravitate towards over/under betting. So to provide some hard statistics to this conversation, I would simply offer the numbers that I’ve assembled in my 15+ years of NFL gambling.
While it’s not profitable to look back too far into the past (as the NFL has changed dramatically over its history, and the introduction and widespread adoption of the West Coast offense has recently changed the landscape of scoring in the league), limiting our target range to the last 15 years of regular season and playoff football gives us plenty of data to play with – over 7500 games-worth, to be exact.
Over this span of time, the limits for total score lines have become fixed at 30 (for the lowest) and 60 (for the highest). Of course, just because odds-makers don’t post lines lower than 30 or higher than 60 doesn’t mean that games don’t end below or above these bookends. According to my data, roughly 1 in 7 games end up with a total score below 30, and roughly 1 in 8 games end up with a total score above 60.
It’s extremely important to keep in mind, however, that there is no magic statistical formula that will tell you whether or not a game will go over or under. There are a host of systems out there – like betting the under in divisional games and the over in non-conference games, betting the over if the game gets to 41 or 42 or 44 total points, betting the over in games played in below-freezing temperatures, and any number of others.
But once again, statistical systems must be taken with a grain of salt. During these same 15 years, during which so much statistical knowledge has become available about when to bet the over and when to bet the under, the actual record has remained almost exactly 50–50. As in all types of betting, the house will end up making sure that the odds even out.
This is why prudent over/under bets require an understanding of value. Value betting is generally defined as wagering only in situations when you feel very confident about what the outcome of a wager will be (i.e. you feel there is low risk) while at the same time you feel that the odds for a particular wager hold the potential for a nice payoff (i.e. you feel there is high reward).
The betting systems mentioned above are after precisely this type of value, albeit in a slightly misguided way. When a betting system points out some statistical anomaly about how often a particular set of situations has prompted a winning over or an under, it’s useful to note the conditions they reference, but this doesn’t mean you should take what they’re saying as law. Consistently finding value requires combining together a large number of different betting systems with a large number of situational factors.
Now at this point, you might be asking: But what are these factors? How do I know if I’m getting good value? The short and honest response is that I can’t possibly explain this to you in words, especially not in the course of one short page. Like I said above, there is no specific magic formula for you to follow, and if someone tells you that there is, they’re probably going to ask for your credit card information next. It takes skill, experience, and a certain amount of feel to find value, and this takes time to develop.
Having said this, I don’t want you to think that there’s nothing you can do to start making good value decisions, and learning for yourself how to make this a profitable part of your gambling repertoire. In the next section, I’ll dive into the specifics of finding good value for total score over/under bets.How Do You Make Money with Over/Under Betting?
As I just stated, and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, NFL gambling is a skill, and it takes practice. Like any other skill, it takes time and effort to develop the intuition that makes you proficient and profitable. I’ve been employed for 15+ years as an NFL gambler, and one of the ways
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